Mail tracking plays a pivotal role in gauging the success of marketing campaigns, ensuring timely deliveries, and maintaining customer satisfaction. While many businesses opt for the cost-saving approach of sampling mail pieces, this practice comes with its own set of challenges, often leading to inaccuracies and misconceptions. In this article, we delve into the importance of tracking every mail piece, drawing on USPS service standards, real-world case studies, and research to highlight the potential pitfalls of relying on a sample.

Service Standards

The United States Postal Service (USPS) is bound by stringent service standards that define the expected delivery times for various classes of mail. According to January 2024 data from the USPS Office of Inspector General (OIG), specific trends and performance metrics highlight discrepancies that emphasize the dynamic nature of mail delivery metrics and the importance of accurate tracking data:

· First-Class Mail: The OIG reports a 1.9 percentage point decrease in on-time delivery for First-Class Mail, standing at 84.0%. Contrastingly, the USPS itself reports a higher on-time delivery rate of 85.8%.

· Marketing Mail: On-time delivery for Marketing Mail decreased by 1.6 percentage points, reaching 92.1%, according to the OIG. However, the USPS reports a higher on-time delivery rate of 93.7%.

· Periodicals: The OIG reports an 80.6% on-time delivery for Periodicals, consistent with performance from the fiscal first quarter. In contrast, the USPS reports a higher on-time delivery rate of 81.5%.

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Reporting Errors and Causes

Errors in the mail delivery reporting are numerous and varied. Sampling may amplify these metrics miscues. From tray or pallet misplacement to STID and MID Handling Unit errors, each step presents a potential hurdle to accurate tracking. The consequences of these occurrences extend beyond delayed or undelivered mail; they directly impact the reliability of tracking data, leading to skewed results and potentially incorrect assumptions about the success of a mailing campaign. Below are impediments that may impact all mail types:

· Lost Mail: Instances of lost mail contribute to discrepancies in tracking data.

· Misrouted Mail: The USPS faces challenges in accurately identifying the originating facility responsible for misrouted mail. When mail is diverted from the intended originating facility to a different sorting facility, the misrouted mail data may not always reflect the correct facility, introducing errors into tracking information.

· Blocked Mailbox: Customers are required to ensure proper access to mail receptacles for delivery. Issues such as blocked mailboxes, whether due to snow accumulation or obstructions, can result in delayed or undelivered mail, impacting tracking metrics.

· Threats: Immediate threats, including loose animals or security concerns, can lead to the suspension of delivery services.

· Hazardous Conditions: Mail delivery may be delayed or curtailed during hazardous conditions or natural disasters.

· Travel Obstructions: Notification of road conditions obstructing mail delivery is essential. If repairs are not promptly made, service may be withdrawn.

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ROI
For businesses relying on sample-based tracking, the implications can be profound. Misinterpretation of Return on Investment (ROI), customer behavior, and campaign effectiveness can occur when a sample is not truly representative of the entire campaign.

Research by the Data & Marketing Association (DMA) underlines the effectiveness of direct mail compared to email marketing. With a response rate of 9% to a house list and 5% to a prospect list, direct mail outperforms email marketing up to five to nine times. Accurate tracking of every mail piece is crucial for businesses aiming to specify which respondents spent money and understand the relationship between mail pieces and customer actions.

Case studies have consistently demonstrated that businesses tracking every piece witnessed more accurate ROI assessments compared to those relying on samples. With direct mail, you can target specific households or neighborhoods based on demographics, income, and other factors. This means you can send your message directly to the people most likely interested in your product or service. Digital media outreach can also be targeted, but it’s not always as precise as direct mail.

Sampling Errors
There are inherent risks when relying on a sample for tracking data. Biased samples can lead to incorrect assumptions about customer behavior, potentially impacting business decisions. We urge businesses to reconsider their tracking strategies for more reliable insights. Lets review some of the major pitfalls that result from sampling mail tracking.

· Sample frame error: whenever mailers choose to track incorrect or incomplete subsets.

· Sample bias: Mailers tracking pieces from a specific customer segment or group.

· Non-response bias: mailers may make incorrect assumptions of their population based on low response rates of their sample.

Not Just Mail

Let’s review a use case outside of mail. Today, streaming content owners experience dilemmas when monitoring success. There are those who opted to track only a sample of its audience, aiming to assess the campaign's effectiveness and ROI. The sample, however, does not accurately represent the diverse range of viewers and locations targeted by the their videos. The age of the viewers ranging from 14-49 fails to show that there was a positive correlation between more views among younger viewers. Another factor when using random sampling failed to capture that the time in which videos were viewed heavily were during non-peak hours on the west coast. Upon closer inspection and analysis, one could find that the sample selected a specific demographic, skewing the overall assessment of the campaign's success. The campaign may have achieved positive results across a broader audience that the sample failed to capture.

Conclusion

All mailers should review their options prior to sampling tracking data. Cost saving measures are appealing but may lead to poor data quality, lower ROI potential, and decreased confidence.

Clayton Rozario is Senior Product Manager, BCC Software. He can be reached at crozario@bccsoftware.com. For more information, you may also visit: https://bccsoftware.com/services/track-n-trace/