In 2025, we celebrated the 250th anniversary of mail delivery in the United States of America. Certainly, much has changed since the time of Ben Franklin. However, 2026 may be one of the most transformative years as physical and digital direct marketing continues to converge, and the USPS dynamically adjusts its postal delivery network to respond to declining mail volumes and rising delivery costs.
We kick off January and February of 2026 not with another major price increase, but rather a tentative sense of optimism as the USPS promotions increase to an appreciable five percent to 7.5% for various First-Class and Marketing Mail incentives. USPS incentives are not new, but there is no question there is a renewed interest as direct marketers are rethinking their strategies to leverage direct mail as a foundation for multichannel marketing. This includes the Informed Delivery service from the USPS, which has now reached an impressive 35% saturation of eligible deliveries as of August of 2025. This digital impression of physical mail piece is a powerful and affordable way for direct marketers to take advantage of omnichannel marketing campaigns.
While the industry focuses on leveraging USPS promotions and incentives, they are also keenly aware that what could have been a major January price change is simply deferred to July of 2026. Thus, the Annual Compliance Report and Determination (ACR and ACD respectively) will be critical as we enter March and April of 2026. The ACD, which is the Postal Regulatory response to the USPS ACR filing and sets the rate authority, including the density adder, for the USPS to file a price change in mid-April. Current estimates are that the price increase will be somewhere in the range of 5.5% to six percent depending on the Consumer Price Index Urban rate (CPI-U), which forms the rate basis for the USPS. Much is at stake with the 2026 ACD as it also computes how industry workshare is helping to reduce USPS costs and thereby results in a postage discount. Workshare discounts will be critical for the mailing industry to carefully analyze as the USPS seeks to implement such major change as zone rate pricing for Marketing Mail and their continued rollout of DFA inspired network changes.
Less than a month after the USPS files what could arguably the most significant rate case since 1997, the USPS and the industry will gather for the National Postal Forum in Phoenix, AZ from May 3rd through the 6th. NPF is the largest annual gathering of the mailing and shipping community and boasted an impressive attendance of 5,700 people at the Nashville event in 2025. Nearly 50% of the attendees at the Nashville forum were there for the first time, so education and networking will be critical as we rally to prepare for the July price change. Thankfully, venues and initiatives such as the Postal Customer Council (PCC), Areas Inspiring Mail (AIM), industry associations, and even the NPF begin to offer more year-round education and engagement opportunities.
While the industry will spend much of June finalizing software and attempting to determine what if any unintended consequences may arise out of the impending price change, July and August will be the real crucible for the mailing industry. Those mail service providers who have implemented advanced automated mailing workflows, scrubbed their customers’ mailing lists from undeliverable as addressed mail, and fully leveraged USPS incentives will be prepared to survive the changes ahead. Those that are unprepared may very likely exit the market or be absorbed as mergers and acquisitions increase at an even higher rate.
September and October of 2026 will focus mostly on network changes as logistics experts work quickly to finalize distribution and entry plans to strategically induct mail into the USPS revised network to further reduce postage and improve delivery service. If the USPS implements zone-based pricing for Marketing Mail, this will result in the industry zone skipping. Zone skipping is a concept whereby industry will change the origin entry to an induction point closer to the final destination, thus reducing what might be a Zone 4 down to a Zone 1price. The concept has existed for Periodical Mail for decades, but applying this concept to Marketing Mail would be something very new and it’s still questionable how the USPS might respond to this.
Early November of 2026 will be all about vote by mail, and the expected contentious midterm election will certainly be a major test for both the USPS and our nation as a whole for election accuracy. And the postmark date, which was recently clarified by the USPS, may be a concern. Historically, the understanding from most Americans was that the postmark date on a mail piece reflected when the USPS began processing the mail. However, with changes to the USPS processing network, the date now simply means when the mail was received by the USPS and not when it began processing it, which would be several days later. That clarification needs to be fully understood by mailers with respect to these time-sensitive mail pieces, such as ballots, counting in an election. Hopefully, election officials are aware and changes if necessary are in place by the midterm elections.
As we end the calendar year of 2026, we most likely will see our postal partners still struggling with cost coverage due to declining and changing mail volume. While it may be true that the value of the mail piece will increase throughout 2026 due to enhanced attribution and response rates, that doesn’t necessarily translate to justification for the USPS to raise prices. Could we see Congress pass postal legislation in 2026 to help ease the challenges of the universal service obligation for the USPS? Not likely. If anything, 2026 could provide the basis for the next Congress to contemplate some type of subsidizing legislation to ease the USPS burden of cost coverage and USO. Thus, it is imperative for both the USPS and the mailing industry to continue this public private partnership of working together to innovatively leverage workshare opportunities, improve the value of mail, and bind the nation for another 250 years.
Christopher Lien is EVP Postal Affairs for BCC Software.
This article originally appeared in the November/December, 2025 issue of Mailing Systems Technology.
